An internal OpenAI forecast reported by The Information points to a sharp change in the ChatGPT consumer business. The company is not modeling a simple Plus boom. It is preparing for ChatGPT Plus to become a much smaller part of the paid base while a cheaper tier takes over volume.
Plus contracts while the cheap tier carries growth
The numbers are stark. OpenAI had roughly 47 million paid subscribers in 2025 and is targeting 122 million in 2026. But Plus, priced at $20 a month, is projected to fall from about 44 million subscribers to around 9 million, an 80% drop.
The gap is expected to be filled by ChatGPT Go, the $8-a-month plan that OpenAI expects to account for more than 90% of paid subscribers. The trade-off shows up immediately in revenue quality: average revenue per user is projected to fall from about $23 a month to under $12.
The Information cited internal data saying ARPU is expected to decline sharply, from about $23 per month to under $12. That frames the strategic bet clearly: OpenAI is willing to give up premium pricing to put a paid ChatGPT button in front of far more users.
Why OpenAI needs the lower price
The price pressure is obvious. ChatGPT Plus costs $20 a month, while Claude Pro is $20 and Gemini Advanced is $19.99. Many users will choose only one premium AI subscription.
Outside the US, the problem is sharper. In China, India, Southeast Asia and Latin America, DeepSeek is close to free for many users, while Kimi and Zhipu lean heavily on free tiers. A $20 plan has limited room to scale in those markets.
ChatGPT Go has already been available in 171 countries since last August, with the US added more recently. The new forecast suggests OpenAI has seen enough conversion data from emerging markets to push the cheaper tier much harder.
Lower ARPU makes advertising more important
Cutting ARPU roughly in half has to be offset somewhere. The answer in the forecast is advertising. OpenAI has reportedly set a $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion advertising revenue target for 2026, still small next to Google Search but significant for ChatGPT.
The longer-range ambition is more aggressive: advertising revenue approaching an annualized $100 billion by 2030. Early ad tests have already produced more than $100 million in annualized revenue.
Sam Altman previously said he did not plan to put ads in ChatGPT, but the posture has shifted. Free users and Go users are expected to see ad tests, while Plus, Pro, Business and Enterprise remain ad-free. In effect, ChatGPT is being priced more like a mainstream internet product: free and low-cost usage monetized with ads, premium usage sold as an ad-free experience.
The difficult assumption
The forecast treats the Plus decline less as churn and more as downgrading. OpenAI appears to assume that tens of millions of users will move from Plus to its own $8 Go plan rather than to Claude or Gemini.
That assumption is risky. Plus users are more likely to use GPT-5.5, reasoning mode and Codex heavily. They are among the deepest and most willing payers in the OpenAI ecosystem. Moving them to Go means accepting tighter usage limits and lower per-user revenue, with Go limited to GPT-5.2 Instant and a message cap above the free tier but well below Plus.
OpenAI is betting that the cheaper plan will bring in enough new users to make that downgrading acceptable.
Markets are watching the bet
The 80% Plus decline, Sarah Friar's earlier comments around AI chip stocks, and reports of missed internal targets have weighed on OpenAI-linked names such as Oracle and CoreWeave.
OpenAI issued a statement on April 28 saying its consumer and enterprise businesses were "firing on all cylinders," an unusually direct public response for the company.
The bet now depends on two numbers: real US retention for ChatGPT Go in the fourth quarter, and whether advertising can support the $2.5 billion line in 2026. If both fall short, OpenAI will face its first major consumer-business test after the financing round that valued it at $852 billion.
Sources: OpenAI Sees $8 ChatGPT Driving Consumer Subscribers to 122 Million This Year (The Information); OpenAI targets 122Mn ChatGPT subscribers by 2026 with new $8 plan push (The Tech Portal); OpenAI Hits Back at Growth Fears, Says Firing on All Cylinders (Bloomberg); CocoLoop; OpenAI Projects ChatGPT Plus subscriptions to drop by 80% (Where Is Your Ed At)