China produced about 90% of the world's humanoid robots in 2025. The harder number is on the customer side: in a Morgan Stanley survey of companies that might actually buy them, only 23% said they were satisfied.
The awkward numbers behind the boom
Shipments are rising quickly. China shipped about 14,000 humanoid robots last year, and Morgan Stanley expects that figure to more than double to 28,000 this year. But the survey led by analyst Sheng Zhong found that 92% of respondents would only consider mass purchases below 200,000 yuan, or about $28,000. Buyers also cited limited dexterity, incomplete functions and batteries that last only two to three hours.
Only about 10% of companies are running substantive pilots. Many robots already sold are still used in showrooms, entertainment events, marathons and technology festivals. The machines draw crowds, but few factory managers are counting on them for regular shifts. The report put it sharply: they may run a half marathon faster than any living human, but still cannot do an eight-hour shift.
More than 150 companies on the same track
China now has more than 150 companies working on humanoid robots. Humanoids are a priority industry in the 15th Five-Year Plan, backed by a one-trillion-yuan state fund. Even the National Development and Reform Commission warned in December 2025 about "product redundancy" and "duplicated investment," as policy, capital and capacity run ahead of commercial demand.
Capital markets are already moving. Unitree has filed for a $608 million IPO at a targeted valuation of $7 billion. AgiBot is pursuing a Hong Kong listing that could value it at $6 billion. UBTech hired a chief AI scientist on an $18 million pay package, while its Walker S2 has secured more than 800 million yuan in orders. Unitree and AgiBot are trying to list during the 2026 window before the current attention fades.
The United States is taking a different route
Boston Dynamics began volume production of Atlas in January and is targeting annual output of 30,000 units by 2028. Figure AI has reached a $39 billion valuation, but actual shipments remain limited. Tesla's Optimus, by Elon Musk's own account, is not yet in large-scale use.
The difference is clear: U.S. companies emphasize valuations and technical demonstrations; Chinese companies are competing on output and cost. Chinese models such as Unitree's H2 and Kepler have already pushed prices below $30,000. Morgan Stanley expects China's average humanoid robot price to fall to $21,000 by 2050, down from $50,000 in 2024. In the U.S., it expects prices to fall from $200,000 to $75,000.
How a $5 trillion market might be divided
Morgan Stanley's long-range estimate puts the market at $5 trillion by 2050. By then, around one billion humanoid robots could be in use worldwide, with China leading at 302.3 million units and the U.S. second at 77.7 million. About 90%, or roughly 930 million units, would be used in industrial and commercial settings for repetitive work, closer to a blue-collar automation race than a household-helper story.
The real stake
Sheng Zhong expects a shakeout. Capacity is already well ahead of sales, and many robots are being absorbed internally for research rather than shipped to outside customers. Based on past shakeouts in consumer electronics and electric vehicles, perhaps fewer than 20 of today's 150-plus Chinese humanoid robot companies will still matter in five years.
For China, humanoid robots are not just another industrial upgrade. Like electric vehicles and solar panels, they are being treated as a core bet on the next phase of manufacturing export dominance. But EVs had Tesla proving the business model, and solar had European subsidies creating early demand. Humanoid robots still face the basic question: who will buy them, and why?
The technology side has arrived faster than the customer side. Over the next year or two, the winners will be the companies that find a frequent, measurable use case with a clear return on investment. The rest may become part of the tuition bill for China's one-trillion-yuan industrial experiment.
Sources: China's humanoid robot boom faces reality check as 150 companies chase a market where only 23% of buyers are satisfied (The Next Web); Humanoid Robots to Drive Next Leg of China Export Dominance (Bloomberg); CocoLoop; Morgan Stanley expects China's humanoid robot sales to double in revised forecast (South China Morning Post)