The Trump administration has an ambitious goal: sell American AI chips at scale around the world, sending NVIDIA and AMD processors to the Middle East, Asia, and Europe — both to generate revenue and to cement U.S. dominance in global AI infrastructure.
But there is one problem: the agency responsible for approving export licenses is rapidly losing staff.
BIS: The Last Gate for U.S. Chip Exports
The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), part of the Commerce Department, is the approval body for all sensitive technology exports from the United States. Want to sell an NVIDIA H200 to Saudi Arabia? BIS must approve it. Want to export an AMD MI325X to a data center in India? Still BIS.
According to a Bloomberg report on April 10, the agency is in dire shape:
- Total staff is down 101 people compared to 2024, a decline of 19%
- The Export Administration division has lost nearly one-fifth of the positions listed in the Biden-era FY2025 budget
All this is happening while BIS's workload has sharply increased.
Workload Doubles, Staff Shrinks
Over the past year, BIS has had to handle an ever-growing list of tasks:
- Reviewing applications for NVIDIA's advanced chip exports to the Middle East
- Enforcing new rules that took effect in January 2026, which allow H200 and AMD MI325X exports to China with a 25% tariff, provided each batch does not exceed 50% of the exporter's shipments to U.S. customers in the same period
- Leading tariff investigations into multiple industries, including automotive and steel
The same group of people is expected to do three times the work. The result: a growing backlog of license applications, longer approval cycles, and companies waiting in desperation.
Who Gets Hurt the Most
Large companies can still cope. Firms like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel have dedicated compliance teams familiar with BIS processes, can coordinate with the government, and have the financial resources to wait months if needed.
Small and medium-sized exporters face a much tougher situation. A middleman helping overseas clients fulfill orders can see a contract fall apart if a license is stuck for months. These companies lack the capital to wait and the resources for lobbying.
Industry associations have already started raising the alarm: if the U.S. government's own approval agency cannot keep pace with export volumes, market share is being given away. Buyers who cannot get their goods will look for alternatives — whether Chinese chips or pre-stocked inventory to hedge against approval uncertainty.
What Policy Wants and What Execution Delivers Are Two Different Things
The root of the problem is somewhat paradoxical: at the policy level, the Trump administration clearly supports expanding AI chip exports. The January rules changed the previous "presumption of denial" for exports to China to a "case-by-case review," opening a door for H200 and MI325X.
But "policy liberalization" and "administrative approval" are two different things. Someone has to sit down and review each application, verify end users, and assess risks — work that AI cannot replace (at least not yet).
Inside BIS, unclear policy direction and tighter control from senior management have led to the upward transfer of even routine license approval authority, reducing the decision-making space for frontline officers and further hurting efficiency.
Two Hidden Dangers
First, the competitiveness of American companies is eroding. If chip export licenses are not approved, sales contracts cannot be signed. Competitors who do not have to go through this gate gain an advantage.
Second, the approval bottleneck could become a geopolitical bargaining chip. Allies that need a stable supply of chips, if they find the U.S. approval system unreliable, have an incentive to seek alternatives or apply political pressure, which would actually weaken the strategic intent of U.S. AI infrastructure exports.
BIS's staffing crisis is, at its core, a problem of government efficiency in Washington. But its consequences are steadily flowing into corporate balance sheets and the global AI chip trade landscape.
Sources: Trump's AI Chip Export Push Stymied by Bureaucratic Bottleneck (Bloomberg, April 10, 2026); CocoLoop, Trump's AI chip export push stymied by bureaucratic bottleneck (ChinaTechNews)